It's common sense that dogs are more likely to win if they're racing against dogs that aren't quite as fast as they are. This is why dogs that are dropping in class are considered such a good bet. For the most part, it's true that dogs that drop down in class have an advantage.
But there are other times when that just isn't true. This is why you can't just bet these dogs without really looking at the race they're in. Just because a dog is facing less classy dogs, doesn't mean that it will win for fun. Sometimes the situation tells you it's not going to happen.
This is when the smart bettor sits on his wallet and just watches the race. If the dog wins, fine. There will be other races and other dogs dropping down. But many times, the dropper doesn't win, because of factors that our smart bettor noticed.
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One of the factors - and it's probably the most important one - is why the dog is moving down in class. If it's just because it had a few bad breaks or some traffic trouble in its last few races, that's one thing. Dogs can bounce right back from this kind of thing and come in when they face lesser talent.
But if it's because the dog is fading in form, it's not likely to win even when it's in a cheaper race. Dogs go into and out of form and it's something you really need to be aware of if you want to get ahead at the dog track. If the dog is about ready to take a break, it's not a good bet.
Another thing to watch for is injuries. If the dog got whacked hard in a race or suddenly dropped position and it wasn't because of traffic, it might have been injured. Give it a few races where it does well before you bet it again.
Post position can make a difference to the dog's chances too, as can whether there are dog around it that will keep it from running where it wants to run. Look to see if it breaks, and if so, whether it will be able to get the break in this race.
These are all factors that you have to take into consideration before you decide that a dropper is a good bet. If you do this, you'll be able to bet or pass, knowing that you did it with more knowledge and analysis than almost everyone else at the track. And this is what gives you the winning edge.
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